ES Futures Analysis Dashboard

July 28, 2025

04:20 PM

Patience paid off today. Just arriving at the 6424 target from the 6411 failed breakdown trade as posted yesterday. Note that when ETH opens that high, the RTH point of control becomes a magnet. Fridays RTH POC was 6413

July 24, 2025

02:39 PM

July 24, 2025 - Market Commentary The Setup: Overnight, the market formed a bull flag pattern following yesterday's strength. The overnight low established at 6393.75 became a critical multi-hour structural level, sitting right at the support of this bull flag formation. The Failed Breakdown: Around 5:45 AM ET, we witnessed a classic failed breakdown scenario. Price briefly spiked below the overnight low, reaching 6391.25 - a mere 2.5 points below the established support. This wick below the multi-hour low was textbook market manipulation, likely triggering retail stops before institutional buyers stepped in aggressively. The Reality Check: While this presented a technically valid failed breakdown setup, the prudent approach was to remain patient. Here's why: 1. Stratosphere Levels: We're trading at historically high levels with limited structural support below 2. Setup Quality: Though technically sound, this wasn't the highest probability setup given our elevated position 3. Risk Management: The risk/reward profile wasn't compelling enough to justify aggressive positioning The Professional Approach: Trading is fundamentally about patiently waiting for the highest probability setups. Not every failed breakdown warrants action, especially when: - Market is at extended levels - Structural support is sparse - Risk/reward ratios are suboptimal Today's Action: The market ultimately validated the bull flag pattern, rallying from the 6391 low to reach 6418+ during the morning session. However, the disciplined trader recognizes that missing a move is preferable to taking unnecessary risk on marginal setups. Key Lesson: Patience is the trader's greatest virtue. The failed breakdown was visible and technically valid, but the context - trading in the stratosphere with limited quality support - made this a pass. Better setups will emerge when market structure provides more compelling risk/reward scenarios. Market Structure Notes: - ETH POC formed at 6402.75 - acting as the gravitational center - RTH POC developed at 6411.50 - new resistance level established - Yesterday's LVN cluster (6391-6398) provided the structural foundation for the overnight low Sometimes the best trade is no trade. Discipline and patience separate professional traders from the rest.

July 23, 2025

02:26 PM

Let me break down what happened: Key Levels from Yesterday (July 22): - LVN: 6352.25 - ETH POC: 6370.00 - RTH POC: 6335.50 - Market opened: 6373.00 RTH Price Action July 23, 2025: 1. Market opened around 6373 (above ETH POC of 6370) 2. Systematic selling pressure during morning session 3. Tested down to 6353.5 at 7:00 AM ET (came within 1.25 points of LVN) 4. Strong reversal from there back above 6360 This is a textbook example of why LVNs are important: - LVNs represent areas of low trading activity - price tends to move quickly through them - When price approaches an LVN from above, it often acts as support (as in this case) - The bounce was likely stronger because: - It was a previous day's LVN (untested) - Price had opened above the ETH POC, showing initial strength - The LVN provided a clear support level for buyers This validates the importance of tracking both: 1. Volume nodes (HVN/LVN) for intraday support/resistance 2. Multiple POCs (RTH/ETH) for different market participant perspectives The dashboard yesterday correctly identified this LVN at 6352.25, which proved to be the key support level for today's session. This is exactly how professional traders use volume profile analysis\! The Setup: - Yesterday's LVN at 6352.25 created a "volume gap" - an area with minimal trading activity - ETH POC at 6370 represented the overnight consensus price - RTH POC at 6335.50 was significantly lower, showing RTH participants were more bearish The Trade Opportunity: When market opened at 6373 (above ETH POC), it signaled: 1. Overnight strength - buyers were in control during ETH 2. Gap above RTH activity - creating potential for mean reversion The Key Moment: The drop to 6353 was critical because: - It tested the LVN support (6352.25) - This was the first touch of this level = "virgin" LVN - LVNs often provide sharp reversals because there's no volume (resistance) to slow price movement Why the Bounce Was So Strong: 1. Clean support - untested LVN from previous day 2. Volume vacuum above - once it bounced, there was little resistance until the next HVN 3. Failed breakdown - inability to break below 6352 triggered short covering RTH Session Breakdown - July 23, 2025: 06:45:00 ET - Initial Breakdown: - Volume: 22,088 contracts (HIGHEST volume in the sequence) - Pattern: Strong bearish candle with institutional selling pressure 06:50:00 ET - Continued Selling: - Volume: 11,140 contracts - Pattern: Lower high, similar low - systematic selling continues 06:55:00 ET - Getting Close to Key Level: - Volume: 13,851 contracts - Pattern: Testing within 2 points of the LVN level 07:00:00 ET - THE KEY REVERSAL CANDLE: - Volume: 12,868 contracts - Pattern: Perfect Hammer/Doji with Long Lower Wick - Significance: Came within 1.25 points of LVN before reversing 07:05:00 ET - Reversal Confirmation: - Volume: 13,445 contracts - Pattern: Strong bullish engulfing candle confirming the reversal Real RTH Trading Analysis: The Perfect Entry Setup: - Entry Signal: Break above 07:00:00 hammer high at 6358.25 - Stop Loss: Below the hammer low at 6353.25 (5-point risk) - Target: Previous resistance around 6365 (7-point reward) - Risk/Reward: 1.4:1 ratio What Actually Happened: Entry at 6358.25 would have been filled at 07:05:00 Target of 6365 was reached later in the session Stop was never threatened - price held above 6356 Volume Analysis - Key Insights: - 22,088 contracts at the breakdown (06:45) = Heavy institutional selling - 12,868 contracts at the reversal (07:00) = Moderate but decisive buying - 13,445 contracts at confirmation (07:05) = Strong follow-through Professional Trading Lessons: 1. LVN Zones vs. Exact Levels: - Don't wait for exact price touches - Start watching for reversal patterns within 2-3 points of key levels - The "zone of influence" often extends beyond the exact calculated price 2. Entry Timing Strategy: - Conservative: Wait for break above reversal candle high (6358.25) - Aggressive: Enter on close of hammer candle (6356.50) - Confirmation: Enter on bullish engulfing close (6360.25)